How Halving effects the Price

Ok ok ok, one moment, folks - be careful!

A lot random stories circulate out there and every single author thinks he or she can explain how the world works (including me 😅)!

First, let's clear one basic thing out and then lets think as rational as we can what really happens out there.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

With validating the transaction with the consensus Proof of Work, the Validator gets Block Rewards (I guess for most of you, this should be nothing new).
After a period of time (roughly 4 years) this amount will be reduced in half which makes Bitcoin mining more expensive and difficult.

This is called the Halving Event.

Bitcoin has undergone three halving events:

  • The first one in November 2012 with Block-Reward-Reducing from 50 Bitcoin per block to 25 BTC
  • The second in July 2016 to 12.5 BTC
  • And the third on 11th May 2020 with Block-Reward-Reducing to 6.25 Bitcoin.

Naturally this impacts the price of a Bitcoin, as we can imagine. So this has a big effect to the market.

So there many people trying to predict how the effect will look like.

Focusing the wrong factor for Side-Effect

There are some people out there saying, it should let the price decreasing and some are saying it should let it increasing. So, whats true then?

One of the arguments for decreasing is, because of selling the bitcoins heavily of saving assets, which effects on price (well, yes - but we need to have a look closer, what really happens - I explain later on).

One of the arguments, why it shall increase is, well, the supply at the next time frame is reduced...

What a smartass am I, to tell you what really happens? Let me explain:

First of all, it's just normal that people are selling many BTCs after halving, because they really want to save assets to something more stable (Its not only on halving events - this is called Correction. If many people do so, the demand is reducing shortly, that's why the price decreases (which is not bad - I´ll explain later again). But mostly the price is no bulling down heavily, it is just in a correction, as I said - which is good.

Image by Changelly (https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2020-2024/)

I have written about the healthy correction in my last post Upcomming 2020 Trend?

Because of the decreases price, but long-term increased, many people see hope price will increase again. That's why the price is really increasing, because the demand is raising! Really, as simple as that.

This is what basically naturally is happening, which is you can see on every market by the way 😉🙂.

So the real magic is a real big other factor, most people forget.

I am really sorry, if I take you that magic away 😋

Manipulation does not mean Prediction

Please keep in mind, price-increasing and -decreasing is NOT based on a single event. Its a rat-tail, which could be different ones. The market itself runs on human psychology and NOT on physically constants! Its very import to to remind.

I want to give you a game-theory-like example:

A big author, who has a great coverage, is saying 'the price gonna decrease', what do you thing what will happen? Well yes, most people try to save their assets, so the sell those.

Then this big author says 'the price has fallen, so its perfect to buy at these low price'. Well, what do you think what will happen next? Hahaha, yes - Price will increase because of the big demand.

There is no real Guru who can predict what really will happen, its because every one is listening to him what they should do!

So at the end, its a big Game of Gurus, let's say. And because of that, it seems to be they are right with this prediction, so everyone believes next time!

This is called pump-and-dump. Communities can decide consciously or it get to be initialized by Gurus.

Its all up to the Mass-Effect!

The Mass-Effect is based on good networking - like snowball effect. You or we could do the same.

This is on some communities called a Train, which is initialized by a big-player-campaign.

Negative effects are positive long-term

Sounds weird, right? hehe 😜

But you know, I guess - We all have Hope the crypto-world will be the future. Let's say, we are the future. As long as we believe in it and work on it, the more this will become true. I really believe, the crypto-market will not break down. But we also have to keep in mind, just only few projects will survive. And we decide which this will be.

So what I want to tell you is, if there are projects in which you really believe, that contribute to it and buy at low price. Long-term you can win. But for that to work, concentrate your power and have a good eye on what happens next to you. Then it will be worth it to use bulls.

Ok, I gonna stop annoying you. Stay healthy and lets work on the future! 😎

Some stunning References